Monday, July 13, 2015

The Dynasty Advantage: 3 Basic Elements That Will Lead You To Success


            If you have never played in a dynasty fantasy football league before, then this article is for you. Sure, it may seem rather obvious that youth is an important dynamic in a dynasty structure, but I can assure you that there is much more to dynasty than only the age of a player and how it could impact his production on the field.

          The following three elements best illustrate how to be successful in a dynasty league and portray why you should consider creating or joining one today. This is especially true if you want to succeed in re-draft or DFS leagues this upcoming season, as participating in a dynasty league can provide you with knowledge that will offer a competitive advantage against fellow league members in the future.

1.) Value:
            In dynasty, the most important factor to monitor is player value. This can be measured by utilizing various metrics, such as ADP, dynasty rankings, or an offensive scheme that a player is involved in. The challenging aspect of determining a player’s value in dynasty is that it can unpredictably change.
For example, consider Eric Decker’s value before and after he was with the Denver Broncos. In Denver, Decker was receiving throws from Peyton Manning, and by no surprise posted an 85-1071-13 line in 2012. He followed that performance with an 87-1288-11 line in 2014. Now consider Decker’s stats last season in 2014 with the New York Jets and Geno Smith at quarterback, where he posted a 74-962-5 line. Clearly, Decker experienced a huge drop in production once he left Denver. As a result, his value has changed dramatically in dynasty. Decker’s dynasty owners witnessed his value of a WR 1 fall to a borderline WR 2/3 in a matter of one season. However, it is important to note that Decker’s value once again could be on the rise due to the presence of new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s spread offense that will be implemented this season in New York.
Overall, the best way to monitor player value in dynasty is to constantly remain informed about news. It is vital to read about player news, team articles, and personnel changes at all times of the year in order to understand a player’s long-term value. This will help you immensely once you begin trade negotiations with other members in your dynasty league, as you will have an understanding of how a player is viewed across the board. In addition, understanding a player’s ADP and dynasty value can greatly assist you in determining when that player will be available in a re-draft league.



2.) Trades:
            Another unique aspect of dynasty fantasy football is the ability to trade players on a regular basis. Unlike re-draft or DFS, you own players on a dynasty team forever. Of course, similar to the NFL, a dynasty owner can also choose to drop or trade a player. However, at times it may be difficult to trade a player in dynasty, especially if he is young or coming off of a productive season. Nevertheless, trades can be made during any point of the year in dynasty, which makes the format my absolute favorite to play in. Essentially, as a dynasty owner, you’re the GM of a team and are solely responsible for its success. Typically, this means that you will have to remain active throughout the entire year to ensure your team will remain competive. As a result, there truly is no offseason in dynasty fantasy football. Between inquiring about trades or monitoring rookies leading up to the NFL draft, there truly is no time to waste in the offseason if you want to compete in a dynasty league on a consistent basis.
            In order to further examine how a trade operates in dynasty, I will list and explain a few recent deals that I have made in the three dynasty leagues that I actively participate in.

·      Trade 1:
o   Traded: Doug Martin
o   Received: Jay Ajayi

For this deal, I was looking to sell high on Doug Martin after reports have indicated that he has shed weight this offseason. After a stellar rookie campaign in 2012 where Martin rushed for 1,454 yards on 11 touchdowns and added 49 receptions for 472 yards through the air, he has become one of the most frustrating RB’s to own in fantasy. His YPC has dipped to 3.7 over the past two seasons, leading many people to believe that Martin’s rookie season will be the best of his career. Hence, I decided to move Martin and acquire Ajayi, who I believe has major upside as a rookie. If it weren’t for knee concerns that surfaced around the NFL Draft, Ajayi could have been drafted in the first or second round instead of the fifth to the Miami Dolphins. Still, at only 22 years old, I foresee Ajayi producing in Miami in the near future. I’m also not a huge Lamar Miller advocate due to his fumbling issues, even though he averaged 5.1 YPC last season on 254 touches. I simply do not believe that the Dolphins would have invested in Ajayi, albeit a fifth round draft pick, if the team had long-term concerns about his health or durability. In dynasty, I value Ajayi as a potential RB 1 with extremely high upside, whereas I view Martin as a borderline RB 2/3 or FLEX play. This can be credited to Tampa Bay’s love for Charles Sims and the transition to a pass-first offense from the emergence of Jameis Winston.



·      Trade 2:
o   Traded: Frank Gore, Tyler Eifert, and a 2016 3rd Round Draft Pick
o   Received: Travis Kelce

I’m sure you’re thinking that it was probably difficult to acquire Travis Kelce in dynasty; especially after all the hype that he has been receiving this offseason. Well, you would be correct with that assumption, as this trade took nearly an entire offseason to complete. The owner that I acquired Kelce from is in a “win-now” mindset. As a result, I had to give up a lot to acquire Kanas City’s breakout Tight End. However, since this is dynasty and I still have a competitive team, I believe that trading for Kelce was the right move. Drawing comparisons to Rob Gronkowski, Kelce (age 25) has recovered from a knee injury that cost him his entire rookie season. Even though he played on limited snaps in 2014, Kelce has proven he can perform as an elite TE by posting a line of 66-856-5. Now with Jeremy Maclin in the mix (who will surely require extra defensive coverage), I believe that Kelce is destined for an incredible season. Accordingly, I view him as a top 50 asset in dynasty and the number two TE overall. That’s right, I have him ranked over Jimmy Graham, who I believe will see a decrease in both receptions and total yardage while playing in Seattle. This leaves the door wide open for Kelce to reach fantasy stardom in both dynasty and re-draft formats this season.


·      Trade 3:
o   Traded: Kendall Wright, 2016 1st Round Draft Pick
o   Received: Keenan Allen

This was one of the more difficult trades that I have made recently in dynasty. In this league, my WR corps consists of Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Floyd. The league structure also allows you to start up to four WR’s. In order to start four elite WR’s, I aggressively pursed Keenan Allen, who I think is setup for a major bounce-back campaign considering he has been targeted a total of 213 times in his first two NFL seasons. A decrease in touchdowns from 2013 (8) to 2014 (4) might scare off some skeptics of Allen, but I believe he is incredibly undervalued in PPR formats. Fortunately, I made this trade before the news broke of Antonio Gates’ four game suspension, or else Allen’s price likely would have increased. Still, I did give up Kendall Wright, who many people believe will benefit from Marcus Mariota’s accuracy and passing ability. Also, trading away a 2016 1st round draft pick is always a difficult pill to swallow in dynasty, as rookies are one of the key components to building a successful team. It will be interesting to see who ends up on the winning side of this trade, but I believe Allen is an enticing buy-low candidate in dynasty that should be acquired from any worried owner immediately.

3.) Rookie Draft Picks:
            Typically, a dynasty league will hold an inaugural draft for its first year, where rosters sizes are built from 20-30 players per team. For every future year, a five-round rookie draft is held. This is where rookie draft picks comes into the picture, which is also another factor that separates dynasty from any other fantasy football format. Depending on the structure of your team, rookie draft picks can be important to collect. For instance, if a dynasty owner is attempting to win it all, trading rookie draft picks for current players might be an appealing option. On the other hand, if a dynasty owner has an aging team and does not have a chance at making the playoffs, it could be logical to trade away productive players in order to rebuild with future rookie draft picks. In order to decide if you should trade for or sell rookie draft picks, it is important to reconsider the concept of player value that I discussed earlier. Both 1st and 2nd round rookie draft picks are extremely valuable, as you are likely to draft a player than can make an immediate impact on your dynasty team. 3rd, 4th, and 5th round draft picks are also valuable, but can be used as leverage to complete a trade. For example, remember that I traded for Travis Kelce by giving up Frank Gore, Tyler Eifert, and a 2016 3rd round draft pick. Although the 3rd round draft pick included in this deal was not the only reason I was able to successfully make the trade, it still made an impact since I was willing to sacrifice youth to acquire a player that I value greatly. As a beginner, it will be difficult to hold onto your rookie draft picks in dynasty, as they seem useless during the season. However, I can assure you that collecting rookie draft picks is crucial to building a competitive dynasty team. In the same respect, selling rookie draft picks at opportune times is also an important skill to practice, as dynasty owners will often overpay for picks when the NFL Draft comes around due to media and hype surrounding incoming players.
To recap, dynasty football consists of three main elements: value, trades, and rookie draft picks. All three of these concepts are important aspects that any dynasty league owner needs to become familiar with. Understanding and practicing such concepts are easier said than done. Thus, I urge you to create or join a dynasty league today and gain a competitive advantage for re-draft and DFS leagues that you will play in this season. I’m confident that the sheer exposure of information and resources you will stumble upon related to dynasty content will help you succeed this upcoming fantasy season. If not, I’m always here to answer your questions. The Dynasty Advantage is now at your fingertips.

           



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